According to the latest review of the UAE real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2023 by Savills, many sectors achieved multi-year or historical record performance and activity levels over the past year.
Despite some easing of pressure from the global economic downturn, concerns remain about whether these performance levels can be sustained. However, analysts anticipate that performance and activity levels will remain resilient in 2024, despite potential risks of a global economic downturn, albeit with some sectors experiencing a slowdown in growth rates.
In Dubai, average residential prices surged by 20.1% in the year ending December 2023. Specifically, apartment prices rose by 19.8%, while villa prices increased by 21.8%. In Abu Dhabi, average apartment prices rose by 1.1% during the same period, while villa prices remained almost unchanged compared to the previous year.
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The UAE's macroeconomic conditions remain favorable, with significant expansion and healthy conditions in non-oil sectors over the past two years. This will support the development of the real estate industry and position it favorably for growth over the next 12 months. However, some assets in certain areas may face risks of oversupply, which could limit significant increases in average prices in the future.
According to CBRE, residential transaction activity in Dubai surged by 29% year-on-year, reaching a historic high of 118,200 units. The office real estate market witnessed a surge in demand in 2023, with rental growth rates exceeding 40% in some development projects.
Savills' report highlights a slowdown in leasing activity in Abu Dhabi, with a 12.6% year-on-year decrease in total registrations in the last quarter of 2023. Renewal registrations dropped by 18.4%, while new lease contracts declined by 2.2%. Despite the slowdown in activity, average apartment rents rose by 2.0% year-on-year, reaching AED 64,996, while villa rents increased slightly by 0.8%, averaging AED 163,098.
Looking ahead, it is projected that approximately 4,438 new residential units will be completed in 2024, with 69.1% expected to be delivered on Yas Island and Al Maryah Island. Additionally, it is estimated that 68,880 units will be delivered in 2024, with 22.7% planned for handover in Business Bay, Downtown Dubai, and Damac Lagoons.
In the hospitality sector, Abu Dhabi's hotel guest numbers are expected to reach 4.94 million in 2023, representing a 29.0% year-on-year increase and a 9.9% growth compared to pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, international visitors to Dubai grew by 19.4% in 2023, totaling 17.15 million, marking a significant increase compared to 2022.
