According to the 2023 fiscal year Dubai real estate market report released by Betterhomes, the emirate recorded a total of 120,742 residential sales transactions, a 38% increase from the previous record of 87,454 transactions set in 2022. Among them, apartment sales experienced the most rapid growth, reaching 49%, while villas and townhouses saw a more moderate increase of 9%.
Furthermore, the end-user segment is continuously growing, with buyers identified as end-users increasing from 38% to 44%. It is projected that 4,500 millionaires will relocate to the UAE in 2023. Long-term visas, favorable tax regimes, and relatively affordable prices have attracted wealthy investors from around the world. These data indicate that Dubai's real estate market remains highly active and has a positive development momentum.
However, the supply remains below demand, and it is expected that property prices will continue to rise in the coming years. The total value of Dubai's real estate in 2023 is 322 billion dirhams, a 52% year-on-year increase, surpassing the growth in transaction volume. Overall, Dubai property prices increased by approximately 18% in 2023, accelerating from the 11% increase in 2022, setting a new historical high. The average price is more than 3% higher than the market peak in September 2014.
Additionally, the rise in interest rates has to some extent suppressed demand and price increases in the secondary housing market. However, if, as currently expected by the market, interest rates start to decrease at some point in 2024, it will make mortgages more affordable, increasing buyer demand and further adding pressure to rising property prices.
The report points out that the future development of the Dubai real estate market will face some challenges. On one hand, insufficient supply has fueled the rise in property prices, limiting the purchasing ability of many. On the other hand, Dubai's rental market also faces challenges, with a small increase in supply expected in 2024 unlikely to keep up with demand, providing little relief for tenants.
However, the report also notes that the trend of end-users buying properties is an important sign of a mature market, providing confidence in price stability for the coming years. At the same time, developers are actively addressing market demand, announcing the construction of over 80,000 new residential units in 2023, with delivery expected by the end of 2025 to 2026. Although favorable market conditions prompt developers to expedite construction projects, it is unlikely that the small increase in supply in 2024 will keep up with the rapidly growing population in Dubai.
