According to data from Dubai's Land Department, local and foreign developers have initiated real estate projects worth billions of dirhams since 2022, with nearly 214 projects launched, of which 148 are active. Taimur Khan, Director of Research for CBRE Middle East, noted, "Much has been said about the influx of new developments and the potential dampening effect this could have on prices due to potential oversupply. However, the absorption levels of new inventory have been quite high, with our overall analysis showing that at least 70% of apartments launched since 2022 have been sold." He added, "Due to lagging data, we expect this figure to be higher, averaging well above 80% in Dubai's core and mature residential areas."
Post-pandemic, many developers sold out their entire inventory in a short time. Some developers sold out their projects within a day, while others completed sales within a few hours.
Dubai's residential market has shown exceptionally strong demand levels, driven primarily by end-users and residents looking to purchase homes for their own use. Many residents are opting to buy homes to avoid the overheated rental market, and there has also been an influx of high-net-worth individuals relocating to Dubai, further fueling market demand.
Reports from CBRE show that the total number of transactions in May 2024 was 15,766 units, the highest monthly figure on record to date, representing a 44.2% increase compared to the same period last year. Prices have also surpassed the peak of 2014. According to Property Monitor, prices in May 2024 stood at AED 1,360 per square foot, marking a 10.25% increase from the historical highs of September 2014.
"Interestingly, a significant portion of demand from unplanned markets comes from owner-occupiers, so in the long run, we expect the increase in supply to provide some relief to the rental market, but it is unlikely to exert downward pressure on sales prices," added Taimur Khan.
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CBRE's monthly report highlights significant changes in market dynamics since 2019. While most sales transactions were previously concentrated in Dubai's core and major residential centers, historically either in various central business districts or leisure destinations, recent data shows that buyers are moving away from the city's core and prime residential areas.
Tatiana El Bazi, Senior Research Analyst at CBRE, explained, "This is due to current market conditions where these established locations lack existing and future supply, and increasingly, the cost of purchasing real estate within these communities is rising."
The rapid rebound in market demand post-pandemic is attributed to several factors. Firstly, with the gradual global economic recovery, there is increased interest from high-net-worth individuals and investors in Dubai. Secondly, Dubai's government policies have also played a positive role, introducing measures to attract foreign investors, such as long-term visas and more lenient real estate regulations.
Additionally, there is a rising demand among Dubai's local residents for owner-occupied properties. Many are choosing to buy property to avoid high rental costs while also seeing real estate as a long-term investment opportunity.
The strong performance of Dubai's real estate market not only reflects local demand for owner-occupied properties but also demonstrates the interest of high-net-worth individuals in investing in the emirate. Looking ahead, with continuous new project launches, Dubai's real estate market is expected to remain vibrant, offering more opportunities for homebuyers and investors.
