The Dubai real estate market has experienced three significant growth cycles to date, but it has also faced two major boom-bust cycles—one during the 2008 global financial crisis and the other during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, after three and a half years of market rebound, industry insiders believe that this time the market will not experience a crash but rather steady growth. This confidence stems from the increasing number of end-users and investors who are seriously investing in the local market.
As the third growth cycle comes to an end, experts generally believe that key measures such as the influx of escrow accounts, millionaires, and end-users have played a crucial role in maintaining market stability. Industry experts point out that Dubai's real estate market has moved beyond the boom-bust cycles, becoming a more mature and regulated industry. Hassan Hijazi, CFO of Amwaj Development Group, stated, “Over the years, Dubai’s real estate market has undergone significant changes, transitioning from past boom-bust cycles to a more stable and sustainable growth trajectory. This maturity is driven by a stringent regulatory framework, increased transparency, and a strategic focus on long-term economic diversification.”
Hijazi added that Dubai's attractiveness to various types of investors has greatly increased, including high-net-worth individuals, institutional investors, and expatriates. He noted, “The legacy of Expo 2020 and various government initiatives, such as the Golden Visa program, have also played a crucial role in attracting and retaining investors, solidifying Dubai's position as a global investment hub.”
Imran Farooq, CEO of Samana Developers, emphasized that over the past 50 years, Dubai has established a strong economic infrastructure and diversified social structure, making it inaccurate to describe Dubai’s rise as “artificial or a bubble.” He explained, “This city stands tall on its solid foundation. Dubai’s successful hosting of Expo 2020 and COP28, as well as its excellent response to the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrated its strength to the world. Dubai’s real estate market has matured enough not to be affected by boom-bust cycles anymore.”
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Yogesh Bhutani, founder and CEO of Sunrise Capital, stated that Dubai’s real estate market has shown remarkable resilience, contrary to the trend of global market slowdowns. Bhutani pointed out, “While global real estate markets are faltering, Dubai’s property prices continue to rise, marking a break from boom-bust cycles. The strong momentum is supported by high-occupancy buyers, indicating that Dubai’s transient nature is receding. Demand from Europe, India, and South Asia remains strong, with wealthy investors and foreign buyers flooding in, making Dubai’s real estate market more stable and mature.”
The CEO of Samana Developers believes that Dubai’s property prices will not drop in the next five years, as the returns on investment are highly attractive. He stated, “We are seeing an increase in the number of investors from Europe, the CIS, and China, with high demand across all market segments. Higher prices make the market attractive to foreign institutional investors, which helps further strengthen Dubai’s real estate industry and facilitates all stakeholders.”
Compared to cities like Hong Kong, Singapore, and New York, Dubai’s property prices are relatively low, attracting investors but not completely avoiding the impact of volatility. Bhutani emphasized, “The current trend of continuous price increases may indicate market maturity, but the interconnectedness of the global economy and investor behavior still pose risks of cyclical fluctuations.”
Hijazi pointed out that compared to other international metropolises, Dubai’s real estate prices are relatively low, providing some buffer for market adjustments. He concluded, “This affordability, coupled with the city’s ongoing development, safety, quality of life, and proactive government measures, makes Dubai’s real estate market attractive to a wide range of investors and residents. The government takes proactive measures to regulate supply and demand dynamics to ensure market stability. While some price adjustments are natural in any real estate cycle, the intrinsic value proposition of Dubai’s real estate market allows it to well withstand major adjustments.”
