According to analysts Tatjana Lescova and Sapna Jagtiani from S&P Global, with the slowing pace of price increases, Dubai's real estate market is expected to see a modest decline in prices, but no significant fluctuations overall.
The report anticipates a growth rate in the real estate market between 5% and 7%, with villa prices having surpassed previous peak levels and apartment prices being 10%-20% lower than before.
Nevertheless, Dubai's real estate market remains relatively stable, supported by strong demand from foreign investors and high-net-worth individuals.
Analysts believe that Dubai's diversified economy also provides support, as the city's economic growth continues to perform well despite a global economic slowdown and rising inflation.
Dubai's economic growth is expected to average a relatively robust 3% in 2023-2024, with continued strong momentum in 2024-2025 driven by the hotel, wholesale and retail, and financial services sectors.
On the other hand, despite Dubai's real estate market maintaining double-digit growth since 2021, analysts have identified some risks that could lead to a market slowdown.
As property prices continue to rise, the risk of cyclical reversal is increasing. Presales may also decelerate to healthy levels, and developers may adjust their offerings based on demand, introducing more high-end properties and smaller units that align with market needs.
Dubai's population has grown by over 2%, reaching 3.6 million (as of September 2023 data), and the number of international visitors continues to recover.
Dubai International Airport processed over 41 million passengers in the first half of 2023, exceeding 2019 levels. These figures suggest that Dubai is poised for a comprehensive recovery in the coming years.