Property prices in Dubai are stabilising after more than two years of rises, with the asking price of an ultra-luxury flat reaching a record high of Dh750 million.
Prices of affordable housing have almost stabilised, but the high-end and luxury property market is still seeing prices rise. This suggests that the affluent are still investing in the property market - a trend that began shortly after the pandemic.
According to Henley & Partners, around 4,500 high net worth individuals are expected to flock to the UAE this year, mainly to Dubai, to call the country home.
This has helped the local market set new records in beachfront locations including The Palm Jumeirah, Jumeirah Gulf Island, Blue Water Bay and Jumeirah Lifestyle Plaza, as well as 'desert destinations' such as Tirargaf.
However, bulk sales aside, sales price growth appears to be slowing, with quarterly growth rates of 2 per cent and 3 per cent for flats and villas respectively. Annual changes were 14 per cent and 15 per cent respectively.
During the second quarter, Dubai continued to launch a large number of new projects, which have now reached the levels seen before the global financial crisis of 2008-09.
Emaar launched its $20bn Oasis project, while Al Habtoor, Danube Properties and a number of European developers also launched the multi-billion dollar Palm Jebel Ali project.
According to real estate consultancy Asteco, some 11,000 residential units were delivered in the second quarter of 2023, the majority (9,400) of which were flats. Despite the slowdown in villa supply during the quarter, it is expected to pick up again in the second half of the year. The pace of supply is forecast to accelerate further thereafter, with completions approaching 20,000 units in 2024-2025.
Asteco added: Indeed, we understand that some developers are looking to accelerate their building programmes with the aim of bringing forward delivery times by 3-6 months.
Where are flat prices still rising/falling?
Some 17,000 flats were delivered in the first half of 2023 and a further 12,900 are expected to be completed by the end of 2023.
According to Asteco's data for April to June 2023, prices for high-end to luxury flats and mid-to-high-end flats are rising, but at a rate of between 3% and 4%.
Prices at Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Palm Jumeirah, Greenbelt & Landscape and Jumeirah Lakes Towers are still rising, with an average quarterly increase of 4 per cent.
While prices in Downtown, Business Bay, Dubai Marina, Jumeirah Beach Residence and Jumeirah Village rose by 3 per cent in the last quarter. However, prices in Discovery Gardens, Sports City and International Apartments stabilised, with zero per cent growth in the last quarter.
Where are villa prices still rising/falling?
Between January and June, 3,650 villas were completed in the Emirate of Dubai, with a further 2,850 due for completion by the end of the year.
Prices of villas and townhouses in the Meadows area rose the most, by 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter, followed by Dubai Hills, Jumeirah Park and Arabian Ranches, which all saw increases of 5 per cent. Meanwhile, villa prices at Damac Hills 2 (Akoya Oxygen), Jumeirah Village and The Springs rose by 3 per cent, while those at Palm Jumeirah increased by 2 per cent.
Palm Jumeirah, Business Bay and the city centre have been strong performers throughout the post outbreak period, with record sales due to strong demand from high net worth individuals. But the slowdown in price increases reflects a market that is stabilising, with more consistent returns for investors. It is also another sign that the market is maturing, with more stable returns on mid-unit prices.
Market trends reflect the fact that mid- to high-end properties will continue to provide significant returns for investors in the future, while the affordable housing market has clearly peaked and may not provide as good a return as the luxury market.
